Building Adaptive Public Management Capacity through Anticipatory Governance in Responding to Complex Public Sector Challenges

Authors

  • Futum Hubaib Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda
  • Akbar Aswin Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59890/ijmbi.v4i5.46

Keywords:

Public Management, Anticipatory Governance, Responding, Public Sector

Abstract

Complex public sector challenges require adaptive and future-oriented management capacity. This study examines how anticipatory governance strengthens the adaptive capacity of the Samarinda City Regional Disaster Management Agency in responding to urban flood risks. Using a qualitative single-case study, data were collected through in-depth interviews with 15 informants, supported by observation and document analysis. Data were analyzed through thematic analysis and interactive stages of data condensation, data display, and conclusion drawing and verification. The findings show that anticipatory governance improves organizational preparedness, interorganizational coordination, and response speed. However, implementation remains constrained by fragmented risk information, uneven early warning mechanisms, limited scenario standardization, and weak institutionalization of post-disaster learning. Strengthening integrated data systems, warning thresholds, collaboration, and institutional learning is essential.

References

Ahmed, S. K. (2024). The pillars of trustworthiness in qualitative research. Journal of Medicine, Surgery, and Public Health, 2, Article 100051. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.glmedi.2024.100051

Association of Southeast Asian Nations Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management. (2024, August 17). Indonesia, flooding in Samarinda (East Kalimantan). ASEAN Disaster Information Network.

Aung, T. M., & Lim, S. (2021). Evolution of collaborative governance in the 2015, 2016, and 2018 Myanmar flood disaster responses: A longitudinal approach to a network analysis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 12(2), 267–280. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00332-y

Campbell, S., Greenwood, M., Prior, S., Shearer, T., Walkem, K., Young, S., Bywaters, D., & Walker, K. (2020). Purposive sampling: Complex or simple? Research case examples. Journal of Research in Nursing, 25(8), 652–661. https://doi.org/10.1177/1744987120927206

Cedergren, A., & Hassel, H. (2024). Building organizational adaptive capacity in the face of crisis: Lessons from a public sector case study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 100, Article 104235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104235

Dai, J., & Azhar, A. (2024). Collaborative governance in disaster management and sustainable development. Public Administration and Development, 44(4), 358–380. https://doi.org/10.1002/pad.2071

de Moraes, O. L. L. (2023). An impact-based forecast system developed for hydrometeorological hazards. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 93, Article 103803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103803

Dwirahmadi, F., Barnes, P., Wibowo, A., Amri, A., & Chu, C. (2023). Linking disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation through collaborative governance: Experience from urban flooding in Jakarta. Geosciences, 13(11), Article 353. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13110353

Ghozali, A., Rizki, A. F. F., & Mustofa, U. (2024). Spatial characterization of flood intensity over the drainage condition of East Sempaja Village, Samarinda. Jurnal Presipitasi: Media Komunikasi dan Pengembangan Teknik Lingkungan, 21(3), 917–935. https://doi.org/10.14710/presipitasi.v21i3.917-935

Harrison, S. E., Potter, S. H., Prasanna, R., Doyle, E. E. H., & Johnston, D. (2021). “Where oh where is the data?”: Identifying data sources for hydrometeorological impact forecasts and warnings in Aotearoa New Zealand. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 66, Article 102619. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102619

Harrison, S. E., Potter, S. H., Prasanna, R., Doyle, E. E. H., & Johnston, D. (2024). Nurturing partnerships to support data access for impact forecasts and warnings: Theoretical integration and synthesis. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 105, Article 104395. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104395

Hennink, M., & Kaiser, B. N. (2022). Sample sizes for saturation in qualitative research: A systematic review of empirical tests. Social Science & Medicine, 292, Article 114523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114523

Heo, K., & Seo, Y. (2021). Anticipatory governance for newcomers: Lessons learned from the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Finland, and Korea. European Journal of Futures Research, 9, Article 9. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-021-00179-y

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, & B. Rama, Eds.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844

Janssen, M., & van der Voort, H. (2020). Agile and adaptive governance in crisis response: Lessons from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. International Journal of Information Management, 55, Article 102180. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2020.102180

Jenkins, S. C., Putra, A. W., Ayuliana, S., Novikarany, R., Khalid, N. M., Noor Bt Che Mamat, C. S., Moron, L. A., Monteverde, M. C. A., Cayanan, E. O., Beckett, R., & Harris, A. J. L. (2022). Investigating the decision thresholds for impact-based warnings in South East Asia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 76, Article 103021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103021

Kitagawa, K. (2021). Disaster risk reduction activities as learning. Natural Hazards, 105(3), 3099–3118. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04443-5

Kong, F. (2020). Understanding government’s role in integrated disaster risk governance. Journal of Public Affairs, 20(4), Article e2452. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2452

Koskimaa, V., & Raunio, T. (2024). Expanding anticipatory governance to legislatures: The emergence and global diffusion of legislature-based future institutions. International Political Science Review, 45(2), 261–277. https://doi.org/10.1177/01925121221134995

Lee, S., Yeo, J., & Na, C. (2020). Learning before and during the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak: A comparative analysis of crisis learning in South Korea and the United States. International Review of Public Administration, 25(4), 243–260. https://doi.org/10.1080/12294659.2020.1852715

Maffei, S., Leoni, F., & Villari, B. (2020). Data-driven anticipatory governance: Emerging scenarios in data for policy practices. Policy Design and Practice, 3(2), 123–134. https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2020.1763896

Mergel, I., Ganapati, S., & Whitford, A. B. (2021). Agile: A new way of governing. Public Administration Review, 81(1), 161–165. https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13202

Muiderman, K., Gupta, A., Vervoort, J. M., & Biermann, F. (2020). Four approaches to anticipatory climate governance: Different conceptions of the future and implications for the present. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 11(6), Article e673. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.673

Muiderman, K., Zurek, M., Vervoort, J., Gupta, A., Hasnain, S., & Driessen, P. (2022). The anticipatory governance of sustainability transformations: Hybrid approaches and dominant perspectives. Global Environmental Change, 73, Article 102452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102452

Naeem, M., Ozuem, W., Howell, K., & Ranfagni, S. (2023). A step-by-step process of thematic analysis to develop a conceptual model in qualitative research. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 22, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1177/16094069231205789

Nikkanen, M., Räsänen, A., & Juhola, S. (2024). Adaptive governance of disaster preparedness? The case of regional networks in Finland. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 108, Article 104549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104549

Pan, Z., de Roo, G., & Puerari, E. (2024). Interaction between formal and informal actors in the shadow of policymaking: Case studies of community-based urban pluvial flood risk management in Pearl River Delta cities. Journal of Urban Management, 13(4), 609–623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jum.2024.07.001

Priya, A. (2021). Case study methodology of qualitative research: Key attributes and navigating the conundrums in its application. Sociological Bulletin, 70(1), 94–110. https://doi.org/10.1177/0038022920970318

Tõnurist, P., & Hanson, A. (2020). Anticipatory innovation governance: Shaping the future through proactive policy making (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Working Papers on Public Governance No. 44). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/cce14d80-en

United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. (2022). Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction 2022: Our world at risk—Transforming governance for a resilient future.

Wolff, E., French, M., Ilhamsyah, N., Sawailau, M. J., & Ramírez-Lovering, D. (2021). Collaborating with communities: Citizen science flood monitoring in urban informal settlements. Urban Planning, 6(4), 351–364. https://doi.org/10.17645/up.v6i4.4648

World Bank. (2023). Indonesia country climate and development report.

Zhang, F. (2021). Evaluating public organization performance under extreme weather events: Does organizational adaptive capacity matter? Journal of Environmental Management, 296, Article 113388. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113388

Published

2026-10-20

How to Cite

Hubaib, F., & Akbar Aswin. (2026). Building Adaptive Public Management Capacity through Anticipatory Governance in Responding to Complex Public Sector Challenges. International Journal of Management and Business Intelligence, 4(5), 1199–1218. https://doi.org/10.59890/ijmbi.v4i5.46